The 2026 Oscar nominations were announced, and there weren’t as many surprises. The most predictable of suspects for Best Picture were One Battle After Another and Sinners, although Bugonia and F1 were some of the most baffling additions. Sinners made history with the most nominations, including the incredible Delroy Lindo for Best Supporting Actor. Even some smaller international films protruded into a few categories, as with Spain’s Sirat and Norway’s The Ugly Stepsister. But even with those surprise nominations, there are so many locks this year that this may be a very predictable award ceremony. With that in mind, I decided to cover the nominations that should win rather than what is most likely to take home an Oscar.

Best Visual Effects

• Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
• F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
• Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
• The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
• Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dea

It’s tough to beat James Cameron’s eye-popping visual effects in the Avatar movies. Despite how lukewarm I was on the picture, I can’t deny the appeal of the gorgeous motion-capture characters and colorful world. There’s little doubt Fire & Ash will win and deservedly so.

Best Film Editing

• F1 – Stephen Mirrione
• Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
• Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
• Sinners – Michael P. Shawver

This is a tough category given the competition, but Safdie always makes his editing intense and eye-catching. I loved how Marty Supreme came together, and it should be the winner, though I wouldn’t be surprised if either One Battle or Sinners swoops in on this one.

Best Costume Design

• Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
• Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
• Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
• Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
• Sinners – Ruth E. Carter

Frankenstein had some stunning attire, especially Mia Goth’s character’s dresses, which were so mesmerizing that it was easy to get lost in them. Guillermo del Toro’s is so technically impressive that it should win for Best Costume.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
• Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
• Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, and Shunika Terry
• The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
• The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

The monster effects of Frankenstein were so stellar that it’s hard to imagine the film not winning in this category.

Best Cinematography

• Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
• Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
• One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
• Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
• Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso

For as much as I loved the meditative landscape of Train Dreams and the mesmerising allure of Frankenstein, I got to go with One Battle After Another on this one for the grand sense of scale in nearly every scene.

Best Production Design

• Frankenstein – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
• Hamnet – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
• Marty Supreme – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
• One Battle After Another – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
• Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

Frankenstein, no contest!

Best Sound

• F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
• Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
• One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
• Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
• Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas

I’m going with Sirāt for sound, given its pivotal role in a film featuring rave music, dangerous accidents, and landmines.

Best Casting

• Hamnet – Nina Gold
• Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
• One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
• The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
• Sinners – Francine Maisler

This is new territory for being one of the first new Oscar categories in many years, and it’s a tough one for sure. I think Sinners deserves this award for taking the wise route of placing Michael B. Jordan on double duty and letting Delroy Lindo devour this picture any time he’s on screen.

Best Music (Original Song)

• “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
• “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park
• “I Lied to You” from Sinners – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
• “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
• “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyrics by Nick Cave

Although it’s hard to deny the earworms from KPop Demon Hunters, I have to go with “I Lied to You” for going so hard.

Best Music (Original Score)

• Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
• Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
• Hamnet – Max Richter
• One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
• Sinners – Ludwig Göransson

For as much as I loved Alexandre Desplat’s wondrous score, my choice is Ludwig Göransson. If his score for Sinners didn’t work, none of the thematic elements would’ve hit as hard.

Best International Feature Film

• It Was Just an Accident (France) in Persian and Azerbaijani – directed by Jafar Panahi
• The Secret Agent (Brazil) in Portuguese and German – directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho
• Sentimental Value (Norway) in Norwegian and English – directed by Joachim Trier
• Sirāt (Spain) in Spanish, French, and Arabic – directed by Oliver Laxe
• The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) in Arabic – directed by Kaouther Ben Hania

All of these films are so good, but The Secret Agent stood out to me as the most resonant, offbeat, and thrilling picture for depicting 1970s authoritarianism in a way that never grows boring.

Best Animated Feature

• Arco – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas, and Natalie Portman
• Elio – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina, and Mary Alice Drumm
• KPop Demon Hunters – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans, and Michelle L.M. Wong
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago, and Henri Magalon
• Zootopia 2 – Jared Bush, Byron Howard, and Yvett Merino

I have no doubt that KPop Demon Hunters will win, but my choice for the best film in this category is Little Amélie for its surprisingly mature and thoughtful tale of a little girl’s introspective approach to the world, with bright and beautiful animation.

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
• Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
• Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell
• One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
• Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson

There’s a brazen nature to how Paul Thomas Anderson adapted Pynchon’s writing style that I can’t help but admire. I’m going with that film, despite how much I loved GDT’s masterful approach to monster stories and the gentle ruminations of Train Dreams.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

• Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
• It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
• Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
• Sinners – Ryan Coogler

Infused with music, history, culture, and sex, I couldn’t get enough of the intoxicating story of Sinners, making it an easy choice in this category.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

• Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value as Rachel Kemp
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value as Agnes Borg Pettersen
• Amy Madigan – Weapons as Gladys
• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners as Annie
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another as Perfidia Beverly Hills

Amy Madigan doesn’t fully show up in Weapons until about halfway through the film, but when she does, you can’t take your eyes off her. I’m rooting for her as one of the most iconic horror performances of last year.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

• Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos
• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein as The Creature
• Delroy Lindo – Sinners as Delta Slim
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value as Gustav Borg

I was fully expecting to go with Stellan Skarsgård for this category, until Delroy Lindo popped in and changed the game. He’s a huge stand-out of Sinners and my easy choice for this category.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet as Agnes Shakespeare
• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You as Linda
• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue as Claire Sardina
• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value as Nora Borg
• Emma Stone – Bugonia as Michelle Fuller

For as powerful as Jessie Buckley was (and sure to win this category), I’ve got to hand it to Rose Byrne for diving face-first into one of the most nerve-wracking movies of 2025. Everything in the film relies on her distress and rage, and she knocked it out of the park.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme as Marty Mauser
• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another as Bob Ferguson
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon as Lorenz Hart
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners as Elijah “Smoke” Moore / Elias “Stack” Moore
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent as Armando Solimões / Marcelo Alves / Fernando Solimões

While this category is ultimately going to be a battle between Chalamet and Jordan, I’m going with Wagner Moura for the best performance. There’s a wide range of emotional states he adopts as he narrowly stares down danger while being hunted down by the Brazilian government. It’s not an easy role, especially for a film that wants to be offbeat, but Moura nailed this role.

Best Directing

• Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
• Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
• Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners

For as transfixed as I was with the Americana and musical direction of Sinners, the wealth of tone and thrilling pacing of One Battle After Another has me leaning towards Paul Thomas Anderson for this category.

Best Picture

• Bugonia – Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, and Lars Knudsen, producers
• F1 – Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
• Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale, and Scott Stuber, producers
• Hamnet – Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg, and Sam Mendes, producers
• Marty Supreme – Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, and Timothée Chalamet, producers
• One Battle After Another – Adam Somner, Sara Murphy, and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers
• The Secret Agent – Emilie Lesclaux, producer
• Sentimental Value – Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, producers
• Sinners – Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian, and Ryan Coogler, producers
• Train Dreams – Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer, and Michael Heimler, producers

This might come as a shock to those who have seen my Top 10 list of 2025, where I ranked One Battle After Another and The Secret Agent incredibly high, but I think Sinners should win for Best Picture. My reasoning goes beyond popularity, even though there is a huge push outside the Academy to have this picture win. While it’d be easy to hail One Battle After Another for being the most in-the-moment movie involving a fascist regime, vicious immigration agents, and right-wing dorks versus burnt-out leftists, Sinners has a depth to stress the true horrors that are ever-present in America with our history of cultural erasure. If One Battle After Another stresses that the time for revolution is now, Sinners suggests that the fight never ended and that the best way to stay strong is through art. Yes, brutally obliterating vampires and white supremacists is essential as well, but the preservation of that fighting spirit comes through beautifully in how the film highlights the power of music. Even though there were films that toppled Sinners on my list (including the criminally underrated Resurrection), I still think it should win for Best Picture, especially for how resonant it’s going to be over time.